Before we begin I first wanted to apologize for the long layoff. I believe that this article will be used as important reference material for future posts so, even though I always try to make sure all my work is accurate & precise, I felt that this piece needed to be particularly well-crafted. However, I have had quite a bit of trouble drafting this post, to say the least. At first, I wanted to produce one stand alone piece, but after multiple rewrites, I decided to break up the post into a series of articles. Though, in order to keep the content flowing, I’m publishing part one first while I continue to work on the others. I also believe this will make the piece as a whole more accessible and pleasurable to read (because, you know, most people typically don’t use their free time to read 20,000-word articles). With that said, I hope you enjoy!
Addressing climate change will require trillions of dollars in investment, and as I laid out in my previous posts we don’t have much time to spare given our current rate of emissions. Creating the political momentum necessary to facilitate a complete restructuring of the economy, from a globalized system based on cheap fossil fuels into a more regionalized model based on sustainable & renewable resources, will be a long, hard-fought, and arduous process. So one might ask… is it worth it? Will it really be that bad if we maintain the status quo, and keep burning fossil fuels? Now, I assume most people reading this post already agree that we obviously won’t be better off just letting climate change go unchecked, but there’s still value in asking the question. Knowing the full breadth of the problem will, like it did for me, inspire you to take more action in your daily lives and your local communities.
But that begs the question, how does the average person go about learning “the full breadth of the problem”; especially when the subject in question is so vast, complicated, and complex. When you’re trying to understand an issue that many academics have labeled “the problem from hell” it’s easy to get lost in the mishmash of click-bait news stories, empty political rhetoric, and boring technical reports.
So I have decided to do that research for you, and have compiled a simple but holistic guide to understanding the consequences of climate change. I based my finding almost exclusively on scientific journals, peer reviewed reports, academic lectures, and government sources, avoiding references to newspapers and other online periodicals whenever possible. ― Now to be clear, I’m not saying that institutions like the Guardian, the New York Times, and the Washington Post aren’t award winning organizations with stellar reputations, but it’s very easy for even the most well-intentioned person to misread or misinterpret a technical report. In order to avoid that possibility, along with any other biases, I always try to reference my statements to the scientists and academic institutions that performed the research firsthand
So how is climate change going to impact us here in the US and in countries around the world? Well, to be frank, we’re not quite sure. Even though the science on global warming is irrefutable, and its link to climate change is equally undeniable, we still don’t have a full picture of how exactly those changes will alter the climate system and affect our daily lives. Scientists and researchers around the world are putting in yeoman’s work in order to pin down the precise answer to this very question.
However, this doesn’t mean that there will be no effects, we are already experiencing changes to our climate as a result of global warming and those changes will become more dramatic as time passes. When I talk about this subject with my friends and family I often say that the scientific community isn’t debating whether there will be consequences for heating up the planet, but rather how dire will those consequences be. What are the timescales? How quickly can we adapt? Will we cross any “tipping points” that lead to irreversible, sudden, and/or catastrophic changes to planet’s climate system? These are the types of questions that our academic and political leaders are agonizing over.
Additionally, the uncertainty associated with lack of clarity in and of itself is problematic. All industry be it finance, retail, agriculture, tourism, etc. loathe uncertainty and aversion to climate-related risks directly impacts our economy, often in a negative way. For example, imagine that you are the CEO of a publically traded home insurance agency with assets in Miami, FL that are under threat from rising sea levels. It wouldn’t matter much to you that scientists were uncertain whether changes in the climate will render those properties uninsurable in 50, 75, or 100 years. What the scientists & researchers are certain of is that at some point in the not-so-distant future those properties will be destroyed. The potential liabilities associated with the risk of sea level rise are so great that you have to start planning for those future eventualities today, in the present, and eventually you are going to have to stop insuring properties in Miami altogether (in fact insurers are already starting to get worried about this very possibility).
Now extrapolate this analogy to the home insurance industry as a whole, and it quickly becomes apparent that aversion to the risks of sea level rise will have large-scale negative impacts on the local, state, and even national economy. This behavior of risk aversion can be modeled across any industry affected by climate change, and when combined with other knowable factors such as temperature increase and CO2 concentration we can generate detailed analyses of the potential consequences of anthropogenic global warming. (by “knowable” factor, I mean independent or pseudo-independent variables that we already know the value of, can reasonably determine, or set as parameters)
Modelers can also compare our past estimates to present day events & historical trends to check the accuracy of their methods and procedures, and ultimately generate a general range of expectations for what the future holds for us.
So what predictions have the academics made so far? Well, the succeeding posts in this series will examine that very question. Each piece will lay out the current state of affairs, what changes we expect to see in the near future, and examine the long-term risks of inaction and business as usual economics. I have identified eight differents area of inquiry I feel are most relevant to understanding the gravity of our current situation.
Those are as follows: climate change at the poles; climate change and extreme weather; global warming and the oceans; climate change and health; climate change and the economy; climate change, food production, & population growth; climate change, war, & human suffering; and lastly feedback loops & climate tipping points. This is by no means a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change, but it not designed to be one.
As I alluded to earlier, you should look at this series as a useful guide to refer back to as we all try to become better stewards of the environment. In order to halt the onset of climate change, all peoples from across the world must work together, in ways past generation would have deemed impossible. Today’s society lacks the sense of urgency necessary to spur on this revolutionary change; however, I believe if enough people gain a full understanding of what’s at stake the wheels of change will start to set in. Humans are a race gifted with unbounded potential, but it will be for not if we don’t fight to protect the only planet we can call home. Because, you know, we can just hop ship and head over to Mars (at least not yet anyway).
